With net absorption once again exceeding 1 and a half million m² and a vacancy rate of just 9.33%, the sector achieved historic results, driven by factors such as the growth of e-commerce, the expansion of logistics operations and high demand in strategic regions.
Main factors that impacted the market in 2024
Expansion of e-commerce: e-commerce continues to be the biggest driver of warehouse occupancy, especially in regions close to large urban centers and in areas focused on the last mile.
Low vacancy rate: with the vacancy rate below 12%, the market remained optimistic and attractive to investors, showing a healthy balance between supply and demand.
Rising rental prices: the increase in construction costs (INCC), land prices and interest rates led to a significant increase in asking rental values, especially for class A+ warehouses. One of the main factors that drove this increase was the vacancy rate below 12%.
Behavior of rental prices
Average rental prices for logistics warehouses continued to rise. Since 2020, when the average was R$19.04/m², there was a jump to R$24.95/m² in 2024. In regions closer to the capital of São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro, asking values already reach R$38/m² to R$40/m² for high-end assets (class A+).
This behavior is a reflection of both low supply and high construction costs, especially in areas with greater demand, such as Cajamar (SP), which recorded a vacancy rate of just 8.53% in 2024 and Guarulhos, which recorded a minimum vacancy rate of 7.46% (Q4/2024).
Featured regions
São Paulo continues to lead the logistics warehouse market, with emphasis on regions such as Guarulhos, Cajamar, Jundiaí, Campinas and Embu, which were among the five areas with the highest volume of new leases in 2024.
Minas Gerais, especially in the Contagem and Betim regions (gross absorption of 165,109 m²), stood out as the second most relevant state in the sector, attracting investors thanks to state and municipal tax incentives. The state is about to surpass Rio de Janeiro in terms of logistics condominiums in the coming quarters. Furthermore, we have Extrema's gross absorption of 63,353 m², this region is strong due to its proximity to São Paulo and its tax incentives.
Other states that showed growth include Ceará, Bahia, Espirito Santo, Santa Catarina and Rio Grande do Sul, with emphasis on the regions of Itajaí and Navegantes, in Santa Catarina, which have been consolidating themselves as emerging logistics hubs.
